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South Africa's maize production has faced significant challenges in 2024, with a 19% decrease in the harvest due to a midsummer drought exacerbated by El Niño conditions. The Crop Estimates Committee projects a maize production of approximately 13.3 to 13.4 million tonnes, down from the previous season's 16.4 million tonnes. Despite this reduction, the country is expected to meet its domestic maize consumption needs, which are estimated at around 12 million tonnes annually, leaving a surplus for exports, though at a much lower level compared to previous years.
This year's white maize harvest is down 26%, and yellow maize is down 10% year-on-year. The disparity in these declines is attributed to the different regions where these crops are planted, with white maize predominantly grown in the drier western areas of South Africa. The expected decline in maize exports to around 1.4 million tonnes, from 3.4 million tonnes last season, reflects the broader impact of the drought. However, the country's advanced agricultural techniques and improved seed cultivars have helped mitigate the worst effects of the drought, preventing a more severe production shortfall
Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, maintains a positive outlook despite the challenges. He notes that "South Africa is not in a crisis regarding supplies of grains and oilseed." Sihlobo is optimistic that the projected harvest will sufficiently meet domestic demand and leave a modest surplus for exports, particularly given the carry-over stocks from the previous season. He also highlights the importance of advanced agricultural practices that have allowed South Africa to weather these difficult conditions better than some of its regional counterparts
The broader Southern African region, including countries like Zimbabwe and Zambia, is experiencing severe maize shortages, with Zimbabwe's harvest down by nearly 50% from the previous year. This has increased demand for South African maize, particularly white maize, which is scarce globally. The rising regional demand is likely to keep white maize prices elevated, potentially pushing prices even higher towards the end of the year and into early 2025 as regional stocks deplete.
Despite these challenges, South Africa's agricultural sector continues to present robust investment opportunities. The country's well-established agricultural infrastructure, combined with ongoing advancements in seed technology and farming practices, positions it as a resilient player in the global agricultural market. Investors can look to the agricultural sector for stable returns, particularly in crops like maize and oilseeds, which remain critical to both domestic food security and regional trade.
Moreover, South Africa's agricultural sector benefits from strong institutional support, including from government agencies, research institutions, and private sector stakeholders, all of which contribute to the sector's growth and sustainability. With global food security becoming an increasingly pressing issue, South Africa's agricultural sector is well-placed to attract further investment, particularly in areas like crop production, agro-processing, and agricultural technology.
The upcoming African Agri Investment Indaba, set to take place from November 18-20, 2024, at the Cape Town International Convention Centre, offers a prime opportunity for investors and stakeholders to explore these opportunities. The Indaba is the premier investment gathering for the agrifood sector in Africa, featuring structured matchmaking sessions, investment discovery forums, and discussions led by world-renowned experts. This event will spotlight the potential for agribusinesses across the continent, with a particular focus on innovative solutions and sustainable practices that can drive future growth in Africa's agriculture
This gathering is essential for anyone looking to engage with the sector's leading figures and gain insights into the latest trends and opportunities in African agriculture. The African Agri Investment Indaba underscores the region's potential as a global leader in food production and agricultural innovation, making it a must-attend event for investors and agribusiness professionals alike.
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